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Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's long-running bid to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to host the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the oil producers that offered the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a summit hindered from the leadership if his government managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.