Where Has the Excitement Gone? The Drop of Open-Play Goal Scoring

Football match action
The Wolves squad managed a decrease of 10 goals from open-play situations compared to at this stage last season.

A major talking point of the Premier League season so far has been the reduction of goals scored in open play and how sides are finding goals more from set-plays instead.

When we compare goal sources to the initial 11 matches the prior season, we note a drop of 39 scored in open play and 26 more from set-plays and spot-kicks, resulting in 13 fewer overall.

Examining the bigger picture, shot attempts clubs are making have seen an incredible 370 fewer in open play than at this stage last season.

Even with the notable jump in set-piece goals, there have actually been a mere two extra shots produced from them outside of penalties, demonstrating how effective sides are at devising strategies to net from dead-ball situations.

Scoring Rates Tell the Tale

Over 300 goals notched in the first 110 fixtures up to now works out at 2.74 goals per game, if this persists for all 38 games would be the smallest for since 2020-21, from five seasons ago (2.69 per game).

However, only under 200 goals coming in open play equates to 1.78 per game and is on course to be the smallest for 16 seasons, back in 2009-10 (1.76 per game).

That campaign also marks the only Premier League campaign to see scoring more frequently from dead-balls without spot-kicks than this season's rate of 0.77 per game (0.79).

What Clubs Are Most Responsible?

When it comes to scoring from open-play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have seen the largest drop, scoring only four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 fewer than at this stage the previous campaign.

Apart from Wolves, the Premier League's drop in open play goals is very much a trend among London clubs, with five of the capital's seven sides netting at least five goals fewer from open-play than the prior season.

To be fair, that's largely down to them scoring lots of goals at the early stages of the previous campaign instead of them really struggling to score in open-play this season.

At the same time City have seen the biggest increase, with almost every one of their 23 goals so far originating in open play.

Set-Play Proficiency

We've compared clubs that came up with the teams that went down they took the place of. Play-off winners the Black Cats have netted three extra goals in open play than the Saints did in their opening 11 matches leading to the drop last season.

When it comes to scoring from set-plays (not counting penalties), the Gunners and the Blues have seen the biggest increase, with both sides replacing the reduction of five goals that they've scored in open play with identical figures from dead-ball chances.

Manchester United have scored double the number goals from set-pieces as they managed in matchday 11 the previous campaign ahead of Ruben Amorim assumed control, while Sunderland once more prove more successful at netting than the club they replaced they replaced.

Man City don't seem to have got the memo about scoring more from set-plays, because they've scored three less than last season, similar to Nottingham Forest, even if this could be because of the change in style they've attempted to adopt.

Overall Patterns

Six clubs – Arsenal, the Blues, the Cottagers, the Magpies, Tottenham and West Ham – are this season's leading trend-followers by scoring fewer scores from open play and additional from set-pieces, while Manchester City are the only side to go against the grain so far by achieving the complete reverse.

It will be fascinating to observe if clubs carry on to place such emphasis on set-pieces as the campaign progresses or if they rediscover their all-round creativity and begin netting increased totals in open-play as well.

Stuart Nelson
Stuart Nelson

A passionate writer and explorer sharing expert knowledge on diverse topics to inspire and inform readers worldwide.