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An ex-colonel from the special forces, government minister Al Carns has recently been making strategic moves warning that the UK must ready itself for war with Russia.

“The threat of conflict is knocking on Europe’s door once more. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to prevent it,” he said, in remarks that exceed previous warnings by his boss, the defence secretary.

“Collectively, everybody – what is their role if we get caught in an fight for survival, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a military endeavour?”

It was blunt language from the middle-aged Scottish-born MP, who has had an exceptionally swift rise to his role of armed forces minister.

A Swift Political Ascent

And inevitably for a politician with a background in the armed forces, there is conjecture about whether he is future leadership material – as with, at various points, other military figures before him.

This time, however, some ruling party MPs think there could be a genuine possibility of Carns being a candidate if and when the opportunity presents itself.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been engaged with politics for longer than it seems, as a former defence advisor to multiple previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the risk of being overhyped as a politician with a backstory colleagues think will resonate with the public – without enough consideration of whether they have the experience and shrewdness to make it to the top.

From the Battlefield to Westminster

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before enlisting in the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “in recognition of gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a surprise when he left the armed forces after 24 years of service to run as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, shortly before he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a junior veterans minister straight after the most recent general election. He was promoted later that year to the more prominent position with a portfolio covering all the military.

Media Presence and Political Attacks

With a commanding presence, Carns has been an periodic spokesperson for the government, and has been an effective political attack dog when criticising rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to break a world record this year along with former military colleagues by climbing Mount Everest in under five days without acclimating on the mountain, aided by xenon gas.

Leadership Speculation and Internal Caution

His name was floated as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a deputy contest last autumn, when his backers began sounding out MPs about a run for the job. That failed to get off the ground, with the prime minister's office firmly backing another candidate.

Since then, profiles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be prime ministerial timber, others think he is making himself appear overly eager when there is no vacancy at the top. There is also a wariness about the meteoric ascent of a star performer from outside politics.

“There’s no evidence that being senior in the military equates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” notes one MP. “He is an unknown quantity.”